BY DUBS
We will go through each position like in a scorecard (1=Pitcher, 2=Catcher, etc, except 10=Bullpen) but in reverse order and see who has the best matchup at each position in the Cubs vs. Dodgers series. This will mostly be stat based, so for you David Eckstein/Darin Erstad white-man grittiness-fans, this may not be the blog for you. Wait. I’m sorry. How could I forget about Casey Blake, Ryan Theriot and Blake DeWitt!!! Sub-100 OPS+’s to follow!!!! However, for the rest of you feel free to take your shoes off, sit back and lets try to sort this madness out like Nerdstradamus’ (see what I did there?).
We will go through each position like in a scorecard (1=Pitcher, 2=Catcher, etc, except 10=Bullpen) but in reverse order and see who has the best matchup at each position in the Cubs vs. Dodgers series. This will mostly be stat based, so for you David Eckstein/Darin Erstad white-man grittiness-fans, this may not be the blog for you. Wait. I’m sorry. How could I forget about Casey Blake, Ryan Theriot and Blake DeWitt!!! Sub-100 OPS+’s to follow!!!! However, for the rest of you feel free to take your shoes off, sit back and lets try to sort this madness out like Nerdstradamus’ (see what I did there?).
10. Bullpen
Carlos Marmol/Kerry Wood vs. Three guys you’ve never heard of and Chan-Ho-fucking Park/Takashi Saito
The Dodger bullpen has been flat out nasty this year. They are second in ERA, walks given up and are first in strikeouts, AVG against, SLG against, OBP against, blah, blah, blah. They are fucking sick. If the Cubs fall down early in games it WILL be hard to come back. However, Saito is coming off injury and may be rusty trombone going into the playoffs (last 6 games, 4.76 ERA. 2.49 season ERA).
The Cubs, on the other hand, have been good. It has been a season of ups and downs in the ‘pen. They too fall into the top half of most statistical categories, but the season that Wood and Marmol have had (dominant one day, shaky the next) exemplifies the Cubs bullpen as a whole this year. This series may come down to how good the Cubs ‘pen is, which can go, well, either way.
Advantage: Dodgers
9. Right field
Kosuke Fukudome/Micah Hoffpauir/Mark DeRosa vs. Andre Ethier
The Cubs, on the other hand, have been good. It has been a season of ups and downs in the ‘pen. They too fall into the top half of most statistical categories, but the season that Wood and Marmol have had (dominant one day, shaky the next) exemplifies the Cubs bullpen as a whole this year. This series may come down to how good the Cubs ‘pen is, which can go, well, either way.
Advantage: Dodgers
9. Right field
Kosuke Fukudome/Micah Hoffpauir/Mark DeRosa vs. Andre Ethier
Depending on how Lou plays it, this matchup is either a HUGE advantage for the Dodgers or pretty much a push. If Fukudome starts, advantage Dodgers, but if Hoffpauir starts it goes to the Dodgers slightly because of Ethier’s experience (three full years in MLB), but if DeRosa starts it is a practical push. It’s actually pretty funny how similar they are in numbers. Unfortunately, DeRosa has a bit of a calf injury and may come out a bit timid.
Advantage: Dodgers
8. Center field
Jim Edmonds vs. Matt Kemp
Advantage: Dodgers
8. Center field
Jim Edmonds vs. Matt Kemp
56 walks, 19 home runs, 138 OPS+ in 85 games. Those are Edmonds numbers. Those are awesome. With the Dodgers only tossing righties in the shortened series, the Cubs will most likely sit Reed Johnson. Edmonds will need to be the lefty in the middle of the lineup that keeps the Dodger bullpen honest.
LA counters with Matt Kemp, a 23-year-old future all-star. He, however, is a year away. Kemp's average .340 OBP and 18 home runs in 155 games makes him good, but nothing special.
Advantage (strangely): Cubs
7. Left field
Alfonso Soriano vs. Manny Ramirez
FUCK. THIS. Ramirez swing is perfect. I have been trying to get my swing to look like his for years. It’s flawless, much like my writing or Megan Fox.
You will be hard pressed to find a matchup that Soriano will lose, but what Manny has done with the Dodgers (.396/.489/.743. .743!!! WTF?) is insane and if he hits anything like it, left field MUST go to the Dodgers.
Advantage: Dodgers
6. Shortstop
Ryan Theriot vs. Angel Berroa/Rafael Furcal (if healthy)/Nomar Garciaparra(?)
I feel like this is kind of a battle of the least feeble (or an incredibly intense cripple fight).
Berroa is terrible, he might as well bring a used condom to the plate. Furcal was awesome to start the year, but got hurt and who really knows what you're going to get from him. Dodgers.com has Nomar listed as a shortstop and second in the depth charts. But, really? I can’t make heads or tails of this shit. Fuck it. Homerism time. You win, Theriot. The LSU grads .387 OBP is super, even though he fucked that all up by doing this 20 times.
Advantage: Cubs
5. Third Base
Aramis Ramirez vs. Casey Blake
This is almost laughable. Blake has hit more home runs with the Dodgers, but still sucks a fat nut. He has a .313 OBP since joining the Dodgers. Aramis’ split stats .289/.380/.518. A cool Aramis stat: 27 home runs. A lame stat: 111 RBI. And a park/historically adjusted Aramis stat: 130 OPS+.
Advantage: Cubs
4. Second Base
Mark DeRosa/Mike Fontenot vs. Jeff Kent (if healthy)/Blake DeWitt
This position depends on whom Lou puts in right field, either way the Cubs OWN LA at second. Lets make this simple…
OPS+ (100 equals average major leaguer)
Kent…91
DeWitt…88
DeRosa…120
Fontenot…133
Advantage: Cubs
3. First base
Derrek Lee vs. James Loney/Nomar Garciaparra
Lee had a good season. He hit 20 home runs, 41 doubles and OBP’d a decent .361. He is on the downside of his career, but is still producing at an above average level. Neither Loney nor Garciaparra match Lee, but Joe Torre can play the lefty/righty thing if he so chooses. Regardless, Lee is better.
Advantage: Cubs
2. Catcher
Geovany Soto vs. Russell Martin
Martin was supposed to be THE catcher this year in the NL. He had a good year, but was a bit of a let down only hitting 13 home runs. On the other hand, he did OBP an impressive .385.
However, he was out-shined by the incredibly well kept Soto (the man's goatee is perfect, no homo). The 25-year-old dropped 23 bombs, laced 35 doubles and OPS’d .868. He played a very solid catcher and seemed to handle his pitchers well, even standing up to veterans like Carlos Zambrano. For the record, Geo is hurt, but the extent of the injury is not know. So, until we know how serious it is, lets just assume/pretend he is just dandy.
Advantage: Cubs
1. Starting pitchers
The Cubs starters pretty much led the NL in every pitching category. The Dodgers were not to far behind though. Besides Chad Billingsley, the Dodgers starters have been good, but not dominant. This series will come down to game two – Zambrano vs. Billingsley. Otherwise, the Cubs have a leg up in every contest. Dempster is better than an aging Lowe, Harden, probably the best pitcher in the series, is WAY superior to Kuroda (only has 116 strikeouts in 183.3 innings) and Lilly should out pitch a very mediocre Maddux.
Advantage: Cubs
DUBS BOLD PREDICTION: CUBS IN FOUR
10 comments:
"It’s flawless, much like my writing"
That sentence is hilarious, if only because you have like 19 typos in here.
I did enjoy reading the rest of this though. I'm sure Scott, Phil, and Danny will jump all over your back, so know that- if only for this one time- I approve of this Dubs top ten list.
For those of you that wish the Cubs nothing but death (like me!) head over to TremendousUpsidePotential.com tonight for a live blog of Game 163.
/end of the most shameless plug ever. Seriously, I don't feel bad about doing that at all.
Yes, the line was a joke, but I thought I was decent on the errors this week. Please fix them or tell me so I can.
There are a couple of positions here that I think are closer than you make it seem, but in the end I think you've pretty much got it right.
While I'm with Ricky here in saying 'Death to the Cubs', I'm enough of a realist to admit they've got one helluva shot at winning this thing.
And to you Sox fans, if you're looking for crude humor, heated baseball talk, more crude humor and an all around good time, head over to TremendousUpsidePotential.com for a live blog of the Sox game tonight.
Ricky's going to need some talking off the ledge before it's all said and done and you could be the one to save him.
O
Ricky/Zach, I actually liked the post. Well thought out and I don't disagree with much if anything.
But for anybody who is a Southside fan and can't get to a TV, I recommend going to tremendousupsidepotential.com tonight where Rick OD will live-blogging 163 of this wonderful/terrible/unbearable/fun to watch/not so fun to watch season.
Ricky will do a good job I promise.
You guys are too much.
megan fox can only cook eggo waffles and hot pockets? after reading that, i'd have a tough time deciding whether to spend the night with her or cc.
I think you need to ask yourself if you're stone or not.
Zach,
I realy liked the post, although there were three things that caught my eye: 1. If there is a game 4, Maddux won't pitch, it would be either Clayton Kershaw or Lowe on three days rest.
2. Okay, so I've never really watched Matt Kemp play, but still, how can you take Edmonds over him in center? That was a little surprising.
3. I would expect to see Reed Johnson start in right field for game 1, even though Lowe is a righty. It's pretty simple I think: who gives you a better chance to win, Fukudome or Johnson? Def. Reed.
By the way, Furcal will start at shortstop I read today.
God I love playoff baseball.
Ricky, can I be in on the live blog tonight while I'm at work?
Danny-
Most of what your saying I agree with.
I think Lou will need to have a lefty in right, whether its Fuk or Hoff if DeRosa starts at second.
I saw the Lowe thing today (must have missed it last night) but I am not sure if they trust the rookie over Maddux just yet. We will see.
I know Furcal was saying he was ready, but I wasn't sure. THat's why I added all three.
I gave it to Edmonds because of how good he has been as a Cub. His numbers are pretty redic (OBP and SLG). I also think that matchup comes down to whether the wind is blowing in or out as well. Kemp hits a ton of line drives while Edmonds depends on the wind a lot.
I probably is more of a PUSH.
Thanks for the feedback.
Good post Dubs
And for awesome live blogging of tonight's Sox game head to
tremendousupsidepotential.com
(shameless plug #3)
Post a Comment