Initially I was hesitant to write a list of this nature, seeing as it is quite a touchy subject for TTCS, as well as the city of Chicago. But in a season where many could see the Cubbies return to the playoffs, myself included, I thought writing a list as to why the Cubs will make the playoffs would be lame. So below are ten factors that could come into play down the stretch that will make or break the Northsider’s near future.
10. Sweet Lou won’t handle losing streak well.
We all know that Piniella does not take losing well, and while they already went through a stretch where they lost seven of ten, it was early, and they never were out more than two-and-a-half games. A bad stretch in July or August could light a fuse under Lou that could ignite the team or more likely, deflate a team of veterans.
9. Soriano’s inconsistency
Soriano put on a hitting display all last week hitting seven home runs and raising his batting average 100 points, so it is easy to say how great he is now. But if last season showed anything, it is that he is an inconsistent hitter. Of his 33 homers last year, 25 came in the months of June and September, where he hit a combined .328. Despite a .302 May and August being x-ed out with an injury, his power numbers were inconsistent, and was not a factor what-so-ever.
8. Will Zambrano keep cool?
Carlos has been nothing less than spectacular so far this year, going 6-1 with a 2.45 ERA, but could the breaking of his bat in Saturday’s game be a sign of things to come? With an exception of his “lack of electrolytes” start on opening day, this was his poorest performance of the year,(four IP, five ER, three BB, one broken bat over his knee)? If he is getting that upset about that line, which is not bad but not great, what is going to happen the day he gets absolutely shelled? (Everybody has that outing.) Can he keep his composure, or will it be an early end of a great season for Big Z?
7. Can the rookies play a full season?
We all know that Fukudome is not really a rookie, having played in Japan for numerous years before crossing the ocean. While he does have tons of experience in that sense, the Japanese league is only 135 games, a full month’s less of games than MLB. On the same note, rookie Giovanni may not be used to the 162-game schedule, and these are two guys who are big parts of their recent success. What happens in September if the big catcher and the big import are no-shows? Henry Blanco and Matt Murton are not playoff-caliber players.
6. Will the hole in centerfield get too big?
Reed Johnson has done a great job in the filler-role for the Cubs this season and proved his way into anybodies club house with that sensational grab on the warning track, but he is going to be a hitting liability as the season progresses. (.258/.340/.328 through Sunday) Jim Edmonds would have been a great pick up two years ago, but his stock has plummeted quicker than Paul Wilson after a Kyle Farnsworth body slam, and can't see him filling the void.
5. The injury bug
We all know this group of guys is not the most healthy group of ballplayers. Soriano has continuous hamstring and groin problems, D-Lee has had some DL stints in recent years, and Aramis cannot go a week without some sort of problem. These three make up just a part of one of the most potent offenses, but if some of them are out of the lineup for nagging injuries, it takes away from the lineups’ explosiveness.
4. Will the back end of the rotation fall apart?
As said earlier, Z has been brilliant this season and Ryan Dempster has been surprisingly spectacular, but other than that, the rotation has struggled. Lilly is 4-4 and Hill has been in and out of the bullpen. Marquis has been sub-par as well. I don’t see this situation getting any better, not to mention that Dempster has not had a whole lot of recent experience as a starter, so he may get worn out before they need him to. This could be the key downfall for the team, and a deadline deal may be necessary.
3. Can they withhold the pressure of first place?
It is not often that they are in first place this early in the year and while last year they won the division, they were not in the first until August 1. This year they have lived up to the World Series hype they were given to start the year, but will they fold and forgo their first place spot in the division as St. Louis or Houston keeps winning, or when a young Brewers team start winning? While it may not seem too important to have that #1 spot in May, as the season goes on the pressure will intensify more and more with every game. Will it be too much?
2. The bullpen
Kerry Wood is absolute garbage. I do not care what people say about him, he should not be the closer and after blowing three saves by May 1, I do not know what it is going to take for a switch to be made. Personally Carlos Marmol is the second best pitcher the Cubs have. If they do not want to put him in the closer role, he should be thrown in as many relief opportunities as they can give him. He has enough endurance to throw in at least the 7th and 8th innings. Jon Lieber is bad, Hart is even worse, so there does not seem to be much talent there as of now. This is the biggest concern on the team and something needs to get fixed.
1. It has been 100 years since their last World Series win
The Cubs have not won since 1908, so why do people think this year is any different. The billy goat, Leon Durham and Steve Bartman will always remain just as big factors to the team as Sandburg, Dawson and Sosa. While a playoff appearance is not unlikely, a repeat three-game sweep in the playoffs is just as inevitable if the majority of these other things actually factor in.
Monday, May 19, 2008
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10 comments:
I'd say 6 reasons on the list could be considered valid concerns. The other 4 were just reaching in order to meet your quota.
At least
"Chuck Norris isn't on the team"
wasn't one of the reasons.
wish you would have clarified as to which four you would consider a reach....because I don't see em.
But then again, if you're simply looking to criticize every post you can say whatever you want and not worry about valid arguments.
I feel that 10, 6, 4, and 2 are stretching it.
10 - A manager's potential tantrums? Rookies may let it get to them moreso than veterans, and the Cubs are stocked with the later.
6 - They can always bring back Pie if necessary, and will once the rosters expand.
4 - I think the Cubs have better depth at starting pitching than most other teams, and can always tap into AAA where they have guys down that would be the 4th guy elsewhere. Gallagher for example.
2 - They have two great inning chewers in Wuertz and Lieber (both sub 4 eras) and two closers in Wood and Marmol. This is a deeper bullpen than most teams. And there are a couple guys down at AAA that once again could be called up if necessary.
7 - I was questioning as well. The rookies in question are two position players (RF and C). I wouldn't consider Fuku a rook, and I'd consider anything better than 250 from our catcher to be bonus.
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Don't get me wrong, I'm not here to be a pain in the arse and make fun of the site. Been enjoying it (except for the lame-o Norris post).
Thanks for reading the site, and keep the comments coming....good and bad.
It is hard to be the only Cubs fan in TTCS and I know you think I'm gonna bash, but I'm not totally. Most of the concerns are real, but i also think some are too early to judge or unfair. Factually, Hill is in Iowa and never threw an inning of relief (thinking of Marshall?)...It's hard to say the bullpen is that bad when they didnt allow a run in over 20 innings last week and have the sixth best bullpen era in the NL (not great, but not terrible). Wood has saved his last six (may be too early to say that he's good or bad, there is an adjustment period to becoming a closer) and Lilly has gone 4-1 in his last five starts. Also, the Cubs have very deep AAA pitching staff they can use to fill in at 4 and 5 if needed. For Soto he was a september call up and played out of his mind last year so a long season doesn't seem to be an issue for him. For center (unless a trade gets done) if anyting happens Fuk will move to CF and Hoffpauir takes over in right.
All in all a good and more importatly ballsy list.
Thank you Z-mart for the clarification, but that just kind of adds to my point there that their #3 has been playing so poorly, and they do not really have a #5. (Marquis??) As for Gallagher, I do think he has good stuff and will pan out but it is not rare for a young guy to get a win in his first or second start simply because the offense has not seen him, so to say he is a member of the rotation is a slight stretch. Piniella has the ability to uninspire teams (see Tampa Bay) and while they were not great squads, there was no improvement in his stay there. The answer that the Cubs would simply bring up Pie if need-be is irrelevant because he is down there for a reason. If I am not mistaken he was the opening day CF and the position was his to lose, which he did, so that is an area of concern. Lieber may have a sub-four ERA but in his 11 appearances, he has one loss and one blown save out of relief and one drubbing of an outing earlier this May, making him a concern. Watching Wood try to close out a game is like watching the process of a car accident; something bad is going to happen and you should be turning away but you just can't. With the rook situation, I also said I don't consider fuku a rook, but he has never played a 162-game schedule, but a consistant 135 in Japan. Will he hold up that last month or will it be too much? I relate this to rookie running backs in football, who may not be used to the 3-4 more games they may play in the NFL. Sorry for a long answer just making sure I covered all questions and concerns to the best of my ability.
anonymous, show your face. You could be a late bloomer in the running of our site viewer of the year award.
Dubs, did I get fired from TTCS or somethin'? You're the only Cubs fan? I bleed Cubbie blue, bitch. You "follow" the team 'cause it's you're fuckin' job.
My bust Mercenary...but just as I wronged you, don't wrong me...you know I have been a Cubs fan since the first game I went to...I was a whopping six months old.
DIE CUBS!!!!!!!
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